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Joined 2 months ago
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Cake day: November 25th, 2024

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  • The people saying that Intel should get rid of their fab businesses, really don’t know what they’re talking about. The manufacturing is Intels most important business by far. Mid and long term. (But maybe not profitable short term.)

    It is so important that it would make sense for the US to nationalize it. And frankly, chip manufacturing is the kind of business or service that probably should be owned and run by the state. Just like conventional nuclear and advanced military industry.











  • Thanks for high effort reply.

    The Chinese companies probably use SIMC over TSMC from now on. They were able to do low volume 7 nm last year. Also, Nvidia and “China” are not on the same spot on the tech s-curve. It will be much cheaper for China (and Intel/AMD) to catch up, than it will be for Nvidia to maintain the lead. Technological leaps and reverse engineering vs dimishing returns.

    Also, expect that the Chinese government throws insane amounts of capital at this sector right now. So unless Stargate becomes a thing (though I believe the Chinese invest much much more), there will not be fair competition (as if that has ever been a thing anywhere anytime). China also have many more tools, like optional command economy. The US has nothing but printing money and manipulating oligarchs on a broken market.

    I’m not sure about 80/10 exactly of course, but it is in that order of magnitude, if you’re willing to not run newest fancy stuff. I believe the MI300X goes for approx 1/2 of the H100 nowadays and is MUCH better on paper. We don’t know the real performance because of NDA (I believe). It used to be 1/4. If you look at VRAM per $, the ratio is about 1/10 for the 1/4 case. Of course, the price gap will shrink at the same rate as ROCm matures and customers feel its safe to use AMD hardware for training.

    So, my bet is max 2 years for “China”. At least when it comes to high-end performance per dollar. Max 1 year for AMD and Intel (if Intel survive).