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Cake day: October 21st, 2025

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  • Vicinus@piefed.ziptoFediverse@lemmy.worldMAU vs UE
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    8 days ago

    I was actually working on something to measure this today. I may have something for you tomorrow. Otherwise, it’ll probably be next week.

    Update: I’ve gotten all the servers (Mbin, Piefed, Lemmy) and the stats for each (users, comments, posts). I’ll need to work to make that data into something useful.

    Trivia: it takes about 6 minutes to request data from all ~300 servers.

    Update 2: I found, I think, some interesting analyses (ex. retention efficiency, current vs. historical activity, etc.). Not sure how I’m going to fit 300 servers with 25-30 columns each in a post, though. Problem for next week.


  • “Stronger” is stronger than before, not stronger than Russia. Which would be correct multiple times a year over the past 4+ years.

    Though at this point it does look like Ukraine is probably the “stronger” of the two. That doesn’t mean they are going to use that strength to grind back territory at significant loses. They care about their personnel much more than Russia.

    No, Russia isn’t going to “run out” of personnel or materials. They are going to see decreased production that cannot match demand, which has already happened with multiple items. For example tanks, they have run out of T72Bs and have to pull the T72As out of long term storage. There are only ~1000 72As but it’ll last them maybe a year.

    The articles about them producing hundreds of “new” tanks are presenting retrofitted hulls (like the T72A) as “new”. In actuality, they only produce a couple dozen modern tanks a year and they mostly hold those in reserve.

    For manpower, they can crypto-mobilize “small” numbers of personnel a month, but they can’t mobilize the masses without creating unrest which would likely overthrow Putin (which is why they’ve only had the 1 mobilization early in the war). The crypto-mobilization has been able to exceed loses for most of the war. The last 5? months though, the loses exceed the number of new recruits.

    Fossil Fuel sales fund a large amount of the Russian federal government budget. Even with the huge spike in oil prices due to the Iran war, Ukraine’s “kinetic” sanctions has seen Russia only be able to take advantage of a small amount of the windfall. They have reduced their exports to keep their population happy, which reduces their overall operating budget. Their budget has already peaked and is set to decrease each year for the next few years (in the middle of a war), because Russia’s economy can’t handle it.

    Those “forever wars” you mention are not continuous kinetic wars, so I’m not sure they apply in this situation.

    I agree when the end of the war comes is a political question, but each day brings Russia closer to the point where they are fed up with the war and want it to end by Ukrainian acceptable standards. Putin is unlikely to every give up, but if he ceases to exist, I expect Russian negotiations won’t be far behind.



  • From my understanding, Russia is running out of gas and their economy suffering significantly.

    Ukraine is getting stronger and better defended. If they run out of money, they may be in some trouble, but that doesn’t seem to be looking likely anytime soon (large influx of EU money coming soon).

    Ukraine can trade small amounts of land to allow Russia to grind its self down (Pyrrhic victory after Pyrrhic victory). Eventually Russia won’t be able to sustain their momentum and can be pushed back then (already seeing some evidence of this beginning).

    Edit: spelling


  • I think it would depend on the length of the book.

    My viewpoint is the weekly reading should be digestible by the average user (reasonable number of pages). So if it’s a short enough book I think that would be fine.

    Having the whole book each week may get people interested in the book, but less likely to actually attempt or succeed at reading it all.

    I think key quotes would be a good addition to the idea.









  • Relevant part:

    Declining birth rates for the fourth year in Germany

    Last year marked the fourth consecutive year of decline in the birth rate and the lowest level since 1946.

    Germany’s current replacement rate is at 1.35 children per woman, which is a record low and far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.

    The Destatis attributes this trend to the entry of the relatively small birth cohorts born in the 1990s into the crucial fertile age of their early 30s, as well as the decline in the total fertility rate since 2022.

    As in previous years, the number of births in 2025 fell more sharply in the eastern German states (-4.5%) than in the western states (-3.2%) compared to 2024.

    Contrary to the trend, Hamburg was the only German state with an increase in birth rates, rising 0.5% in 2025.

    Dastatis longterm projections, which extend to 2070, found that the population could shrink by around 10%. The report concludes that immigration will not offset the decline.



  • So looking at “/nodeinfo/2.1” on a couple random servers, they have “localposts”, “localcomments”, and users: “activemonthly”, “activehalfyear”, and “total”.

    Without admin access, someone could get what your asking for, but it would be an overall rather than a current snapshot. If someone wanted to do it, they could daily track the changes in comments, posts, and MAU. From there we could calculate a variety of ‘activity’ levels for each instance.

    I’m semi curious what we’d see, but I don’t think curious enough to code a script and run it daily. Maybe if I made a ‘server’ from an old laptop, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on it happening.


  • Had another thought. If you could remote into their server could they not remote into your server?

    I’m thinking this could be a good gateway trial option for clients. You set up services on your server and give them limited time access to the server to use the FOSS software. If they want, after the trial they can transfer their data. You then wipe the server to ensure their data is erased.

    Also, an option I’m not sure you’d be excited about. You host everything for them and offer the service of using your server for their business needs (rather than just a trial). May be less headache in the long run (less overall hardware means less overall issues, presumably).

    For the running of software on your server, I believe there are companies that do that already for the fediverse instances. May be worth looking at and seeing what they offer and for what price.


  • I think this could be a thing, but I feel getting the word out would be the hard part.

    Maybe going to small business/incubator business networking events could provide potential clients. Getting in touch with incubators in general would probably be good, as they can pass word to their clients. Colleges and universities may be another avenue of getting the word out to potential new small businesses.

    Also to consider, if it’s for businesses, there would need to be data redundancy. Otherwise, I feel, it would be a nonstarter. Data recovery/access to redundancy would likely need to be automated or very easy to do, otherwise you’re probably looking at irate calls in the middle of the night.



  • That would be nice to have. I think each instance admin would have to figure that out and provide it for their server and then someone come along and aggregate the results.

    Without getting admins involved, I suppose each server’s average posts or comments per MAU could be a calculatable metric.

    It has seemed a bit less active, to me, the last week or two. The MAU are monthly, so if, for example, there was something that caused people to take a break last week, we wouldn’t see it for another 3 weeks.