I’m not so sure. Are these polls taking into account that abortion is on the ballot in a lot of states? If the question is Trump v Harris i believe these polls, but every time abortion has been on a ballot it drives democrats out to the polls and their candidates win with larger margins than expected.
I’m not so sure. Are these polls taking into account that abortion is on the ballot in a lot of states? If the question is Trump v Harris i believe these polls, but every time abortion has been on a ballot it drives democrats out to the polls and their candidates win with larger margins than expected.
Here are the states where abortion is on the ballot:
https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/ballot-tracker-status-of-abortion-related-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
MT, NV, AZ, CO, SD, NB, MO, FL, MD, NY.
CO, MD, and NY are all voting Harris anyway.
MT, SD, NB, MO are all heavy Trump states.
While I’d like to say it could make a difference in NV, AZ, or FL, everything is looking like it won’t.
People can support abortion and still vote Trump.
Florida: Trump +2, +3, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Florida Abortion Amendment: +38
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4801375-florida-abortion-ballot-initiative/
So abortion leads Harris in Florida by a lot.