The US export controls aimed at limiting Chinese AI development are struggling. China’s latest AI reasoning models perform well on older, domestically produced GPU chips, with scale being more critical than chip advancement. China is also progressing toward parity in advanced chip production.

These controls have driven Chinese innovation, leading to models like Deepseek, now considered among the world’s best. A significant shift is China’s embrace of open-source AI models, expanding its talent pool and offering a strategic edge. In contrast, US efforts rely heavily on private investment, betting on future tech “unicorns” to generate massive profits.

In early 2025 another profound global shift favors Open-Source over US tech. As the US disengages from NATO to side with Russia, Europeans are left scrambling to replace reliance on US technology. They, and much of the rest of the world, are now much less likely to adopt new US technology, as it will be seen as adversarial and a security threat.

A couple of years ago the story of Open-Source AI was just a curiosity to be remarked on, perhaps it is about to take the main stage.