Development may be indication China is softening on beginning negotiations over American 145% tariffs
  • amemorablename@lemmygrad.ml
    23·
    3 days ago

    Nomura Securities said about 16 million Chinese people could lose their jobs once the long-term ripple effects of a 50% drop in Chinese exports to the US worked their way through the economy.

    I’m guessing this is at least somewhat bullshit of a number. If for no other reason than the fact that China isn’t structured with the intent to abandon large portions of the working class, much less abandon them over things out of their control. Supposing this number was true, China could shift policy focus into helping the companies find other outlets for their production, in order to help the people keep their jobs. Or help the workers find comparable work. And in the meantime, be housing them and still giving them a decent life, unlike the US which would be evicting them and bulldozing their homeless encampments.

    In other words, it reads like a statement that is meant to be weighty and scary, but primarily if you believe that China operates with the callousness toward the working class that the US does and since it doesn’t, it isn’t actually that big of a deal in the context of what China is capable of. But all of those exports being pointed elsewhere, or shut down where they can’t be, would be a big deal for the US, who would not have any obvious means to get them back. It’s like they think “sticking it to the Chinese” is somehow going to satiate USians who suddenly wonder why their consumer goods are faltering; and if so, I think they drastically overestimate the pettiness of westerners and underestimate how much they’ve been socialized to soothe societal ills with “consume product.”

  • Che's Motorcycle@lemmygrad.ml
    11·
    3 days ago

    Galaxy brain Treasury secretary:

    Bessent said the pressure was on China because it is more dependent on exports to the US than vice versa.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
      11·
      3 days ago

      You have to wonder whether he is genuinely oblivious or simply aware of how dire the US situation is and deliberately misrepresenting it. In every interview I’ve seen with him over the past few weeks, he appeared visibly anxious, stammering and deflecting questions with little conviction. It is clear that producers can more easily identify new consumer markets than consumers can replace goods they rely on and cannot produce independently. China’s domestic economy is expanding, and BRICS as a collective is growing economically as well. There is plenty of increased consumption outside the US to ensure robust demand for Chinese exports going forward.

  • Commiejones@lemmygrad.ml
    9·
    3 days ago

    “They sell us about five times more than we sell them. So their factories are closing down as we speak,” Bessent said. “We’re going into the holiday season. Orders are placed for that now. So if those orders aren’t placed, it could be devastating for the Chinese.” -Bessent

    This guy is so stupid. Imagine believing that Being on the demand side of the equation gives you more power than being on the supply side.

    People will be upset over a few factories shutting down. For sure. It’ll suck for some chinese workers.

    But the other side of that coin is empty stores before Black Friday. How many retailers are going to finish the year in the red if they cant get products to sell? How many consumers are going to be mad because there is nothing to buy or what there is is 10x the cost because there is no supply? There is nobody to replace those products and even if there were Trump’s tariffs have pissed the entire world off because he put them on everyone.

    We might see scarcity protests in usa this christmas. Honestly I think Trump might actually “drain the swamp” just not in the way he was hoping for.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
      6·
      3 days ago

      Exactly, and it only gets worse from here on out because once Chinese companies redirect trade away from US, then there’s little incentive to go back to dealing with the idiocy there. So, even once they sober up and realize they need Chinese goods, I don’t expect they’ll get them in the same volumes. Chinese economy is already rapidly adjusting to the tariffs https://archive.ph/EAI45