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As you who read this likely well know by this point, things are not looking up for Russia. Not only recently, but pretty much ever since they engaged in an armed conflict with Ukraine. I’m saying this empathetically; they are struggling. Not talking about Kremlin, but the people.
Economy has not only been steadily going downward since the end of Soviet, but now it’s really being flushed down the drain. Their population is decreasing from both military losses and emigration. Working-age men are dwindling, and the brain-drain has left many to themselves (read; people who only speak & understand Russian are subject to state propaganda). And let’s not forget the numerous sanctions.
That said, I’ve been thinking a lot lately, and wish to discuss some thoughts with people from around the world: What does their future look like?
With the dwindling population and increasing disproportions of societal roles, will we see even more ghost towns and villages across the country? Will a city like Khabarovsk survive only through the benevolence of China? What are the hopes of those already in poor conditions in such areas that see no hope for any prosperity?
Will there be help packages offered by countries in the forms of deals or treaties? Like “you will get your money/trade deals back if you help rebuild Ukraine”? Or “we will provide fair treatment to Russian expats through this program”? Are there any countries that want to help Russians after the armed conflict is concluded? I can’t say I’ve seen much about this…?
Or are there thoughts among countries that Russia should be further isolated and treated harshly?
And historically, what is the closest comparison to what we’re seeing here? Yugoslavia? Will the nation likely become divided into new countries?
NOTE: I’m not here to discuss what is deserved and “what about X”. My personal relation is with people whom have family on the other side of the border. That’s where my mind is at, and this is not to take away from everything else that happens in the world that is messed up, but I can only focus on so much without going crazy in this brutal world we live in.
The point of the post is rational discussion of the current situation and likely outcomes in order to still some errant minds. I ask you to please refrain from bandwagoning and/or activism here.
As long as Putin is in power, the downward spiral will continue. After that? Legally, the prime minister would take over. Realistically, it’s whoever manages to woo over the military & the elite. The long-term outcome depends on who will actually be the one in power.
The people though, they’re still screwed. Unless a miracle happens and P drops dead tomorrow and the person that ends up taking over is a notch less corrupt than the other. It’d be a miracle indeed. In any case, just like you said, ghost towns will propagate, the intelligent will leave, the old will die. However, Russia is supposed to be big and strong, with nukes and honour. The big bad bear does not show weakness. So personally, I don’t think there’s going to be “care packages” or “aid” or “you get help if you do X”. That’d mean admitting needing help, and that’s a big no-no.
As someone from a former Soviet country (now living in UK), my heart bleeds for the Russian people. Over a million young people pushing up sunflowers in Ukraine. Some of them were evil and cruel, yes, but a lot of them didn’t want to be there. And war aside, just as you pointed out - Russia never properly recovered and rebuilt post-USSR. And the people suffer more than the ones in power, since the latter have money to import the Mercedes and eat the caviar. Is also why many escape, and become expats. Though nowadays they need connections and to grease the right palms, what with every body being a potential force in the war.
That said, the rampant corruption in Russian leadership has been there for a long time. Pre and post dissolution, the methods have only changed. As such, unless something major happens, I don’t think Russia will ever recover and become a world leader. They’re too far behind, and unwilling to change. But oh well, gotta see in a couple of generations, I hope I’m wrong. Oh, and I don’t think that the modern day Russia will break apart any time soon. Too proud, too harsh, and not worth the effort for those that could potentially benefit from it.
I’ve heard a lot of fear and murmur about whoever succeeding Putin will be one from his inner circle who will be even more radical than him. I really hope something else will happen, but unlikely, unfortunately…
I think you’re very right with the element of pride, and it will indeed to a large degree be their continued downfall. Nevertheless I hope (for a miracle?) that there will be more international openness, despite the isolation that both Kremlin and other nations have imposed upon the country. Isolation is at best only going to create stagnation.
The fact that only those with good connections manage to get out of the dire situation makes me want to do something for them. There are good people there too, who are stuck either due to fear or economy. But I can’t say I’ve seen a lot of good treatment of Russians abroad after 2022. I know people who’ve had to change their surname in order to avoid prejudice abroad. This is what I feel makes it not only more difficult, but also like they are on their own; there is no support to get.
Russia probably won’t become a world leader anytime soon indeed, but they don’t have to be for the people to live well. And I agree; a major event is likely necessary for proper change to take place. I held my breath when the Wagner group marched towards Moscow, uncertain if something like a civil war would be breaking out. But alas, the same corruption prevailed as always, and the leader was disposed of through an “accident”.
In regards to separation, I’m curious if there will protests at governmental levels in oblasts, krais, or republics, like Kaliningrad, Yakutia, Krasnoyarsk Krai (Siberia), or Khabarovsk Krai. Many of the people in these areas are (for the lack of a better word) disconnected from the war in every sense other than what the state tells them. If the illusion of the propaganda breaks, I wonder if they will at any point think “we’ll be better off without Moscow”? And the amount of young men Kremlin has siphoned out of Khabarovsk is a very good reason for wanting separation, imho. They are already closer friends with China than with Moscow anyways, it seems to me.
