Americans who have jobs are enjoying unusual job security. Layoffs are low by historical standards. Companies, scarred by the surprise labor shortages that followed COVID-19 lockdowns a few years ago, don’t want to risk giving up the staff they have.
One week in July the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level in more than 50 years. The jobless rate tumbled to 4.2% in June, the lowest in a year, and is expected to have stayed there last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.
But Americans who have lost their jobs – or are seeking to bust into the job market for the first time – are struggling to catch a break. One sign of their trouble: In May 27.5% of the unemployed had been out of work for six months, the most in four and a half years; the share dipped slightly but remained high in June.
Economists have used the term “no hire, no fire’’ to describe the unusual job market conditions.
The Labor Department releases July employment numbers on Friday. They are expected to show that companies, government agencies and nonprofits added nearly 98,000 jobs last month, according to the FactSet survey.
That would be an improvement on the disappointing 57,000 jobs employers created in June.
Unexpected by whom? Those numbers should be revised down even further in my opinion. A lot lower.
Other than wallstreet going bananas over the AI boom, the rest of economy the has entered a global recession.
This will not likely be a short one either. When you fuck up the regulations, support networks, etc… that have been built up to mitigate economic swings at the same time you disrupt international and domestic trade in multiple ways… It’s looking like a bad 10-15 years at this point.
Full on great depression when the AI boom crashes.