This war isn’t great for Russia, I highly doubt they were like “Yeah! We want a 2 year long slog that has serious trade ramifications for us!!!” But the idea that are losing or lost is silly.

I doubt that this is their ideal scenario but I also doubt that this isn’t inside their reasonable range of expectations. Military planners are by nature pessimists because the optimists end up planning shit like Barbarossa and then having to shoot themselves in disgrace.