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Cake day: May 21st, 2024

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  • Mein Punkt ist ja, dass es nicht unbedingt logisch (=präfrontaler Cortex lastig) ist, sondern im Gegenteil eher widersprüchlich. Rein spekulativ, aber das mit dem Image würde ich nicht auf Merz vs. Scholz/Habeck einschränken, sondern auf das wahrgenommene Parteiimage an sich. Den Gutmenschen und Weltverbesserern wird eine harte Gangart halt weniger abgenommen. Im Gegenteil steht Weltoffenheit halt diametral zum Drang nach Abschottung.

    Der Schuss kann ferner noch weiter nach hinten losgehen, da sich die beiden Parteien von ihrer Basis entfernen und diese jeweils weniger angespornt wird, aktiv zu werden oder gar zu wählen. So etwas ähnliches sah man international am prominentesten vor ein paar Monaten in den USA. Sie ist jedoch nicht das einzige Beispiel. Die Union hingegen darf weniger Skrupel haben, da die Basis nur schon aufgrund ihrer Geschichte breit, insgesamt weiter rechts ist und durch die AfD beeinflusst wird. Die dadurch erlaubte Klarheit in der Kommunikation kann ein Vorteil sein.

    Hinzu kommt die wenig ruhmreiche Regierung der Ampel, welche v.a. für Stillstand und Streit steht, als für tatsächlichen Willen und Fortschritt. Und was erreicht wurde, kam in der Öffentlichkeit auch in schlechtes Licht. Als Beispiel fällt mir spontan die unsägliche Posse um das Gebäudeenergiegesetz ein, welches in den Medien, gerade auch in den sozialen Medien, durch mit Falschinformationen durchzogenen Angriffen traktiert und nie effektvoll verteidigt und präsentiert wurde.


  • Neben den im Artikel genannten Gründen, scheint mir das wichtige Thema “Emotionen” etwas unterschlagen worden zu sein. Für das Beispiel Angst und Sicherheit: Die AfD hat über die letzten Jahre eine Drohkulisse aufgebaut. Natürlich unter der Komplizenschaft der Medien, welche verzerrt über Verbrechen berichten . So werden nichtdeutsche Tatverdächtige im Fernsehen 19 Mal, in Zeitungsberichten 32 Mal so häufig erwähnt, “wie es ihrem statistischen Anteil entspricht”. Die Inkompetenz der anderen Parteien in Bezug auf moderne/soziale Medien gepaart mit schwer belegbaren Mis- und Desinformationkampagnen aus dem In- und Ausland runden das Ganze ab. Weiter befeuert wird die Angst durch den Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine und die Unberechenbarkeit der USA in einer zunehmend multipolaren Welt.

    Die Union hat sich bezüglich dieses Themas extrem nach rechts gerückt, ohne sich den Stank des Rechtsextremismus anzueignen und steht in den Augen und eben auch Herzen vieler, für Sicherheit. Zumindest gefühlt. Zusätzlich konnte sich diese Verhindererpartei, gerade dank dieses Themas, als eine Veränderungspartei positionieren. Das sorgt auch unter Menschen, die wirtschaftlich durch die CDU Politik leiden werden für Zulauf, gerade weil der Status Quo unbefriedigend ist.

    Eine Alternative, welche aus ihren eigenen Prinzipien und wertebasierten Weltanschauung heraus eine andere Erzählung und Erklärung der Ereignisse anbieten würde, steht nicht wirklich zur Wahl. Die am ehesten dafür in Frage kommende Linke befindet sich in einer organisatorischen Krise, die SPD folgte der CDU nach rechts und Bündnis 90 weiss gefühlt noch nicht so recht wohin. So gibt es nur vereinzelte Personen, welche jedoch kaum wahrgenommen werden.

    Edit: Weltpolitik als Angstgrund eingefügt.


  • How would anything have been able to form, i.e. make more order, without decreasing entropy?

    Of course there are multiple errors in that thought.

    1. Entropy does not mean an actual grade of (dis-)order or organization. It’s one model to grasp certain processes through that concept. Outside of these the model doesn’t hold.
    2. The second law of thermodynamics says that entropy cannot decrease in a CLOSED system (i.e. mass, energy, information flow at the boundary = 0). It doesn’t mean that within that system there can’t be local imbalances. For example: For a plant to be able to “order” - to use this term - its molecules to cells, Hydrogen atoms had to have been fused to Helium in our fusion reactor 150 million km away that we call sun which increases local entropy.

    Of course there’s more wrong with it, but those would be the blatant ones for me.






  • There are many parallels . The most alarming in my eyes is what is reminding me of what happened before and after the passage of the Enabling Act of 1933. What it effectually did was to concentrate power into the hands of the executive, circumventing the legislature to enact laws even if they are explicitly unconstitutional. The far right’s Unitary Executive Theory has basically the same stated goal. And the judiciary has already basically embodied this theory with the SC decision around presidential immunity. I fear it is only a matter of time, until the Executive Orders override laws and can’t be challenged until it’s too late. Which is why an actually resisting opposition and organizing on the ground is so important.

    To your point: Before the vote the Nazis intimidated anyone opposing the law and arrested basically the whole of the Communist Party and some of the Social Democartic Party (SPD) while striking deals with the center and religious right, who wanted some assurances for their own if they vote for it. This is the Gleichschaltung you’re talking about. And the Trump administration has been known for nothing but intimidation (the complete media landscape has heeled except for a few small actually independent outlets) and so-called deals, so absolutely.

    Also the ‘flooding of the zone’ as Steve Bannon announced it, as well as the use of catastrophies (fires, plane crashes) to assign further blame to the opponents and legitimize the own actions are straight out of Autocracy 101.



  • There are many parallels . The most alarming in my eyes is what is reminding me of what happened before and after the passage of the Enabling Act of 1933. What it effectually did was to concentrate power into the hands of the executive, circumventing the legislature to enact laws even if they are explicitly unconstitutional. The far right’s Unitary Executive Theory has basically the same stated goal. And the judiciary has already basically embodied this theory with the SC decision around presidential immunity. I fear it is only a matter of time, until the Executive Orders override laws and can’t be challenged until it’s too late. Which is why an actually resisting opposition and organizing on the ground is so important.

    To your point: Before the vote the Nazis intimidated anyone opposing the law and arrested basically the whole of the Communist Party and some of the Social Democartic Party (SPD) while striking deals with the center and religious right, who wanted some assurances for their own if they vote for it. This is the Gleichschaltung you’re talking about. And the Trump administration has been known for nothing but intimidation (the complete media landscape has heeled except for a few small actually independent outlets) and so-called deals, so absolutely.

    Also the ‘flooding of the zone’ as Steve Bannon announced it, as well as the use of catastrophies (fires, plane crashes) to assign further blame to the opponents and legitimize the own actions are straight out of Autocracy 101.



  • The difference being that the incrementalism was outsourced to elected officials. What I understand that sentence to mean to say is that it needs every one of you who is able to do anything of any magnitude. It adds up. And like kattfisk says, you get active and organized. You have more power than you think and democracy is more than just drawing a few crosses in a box every few years.

    I mean, who is going to do it if not you? What have the heroes from the Democratic party been up to since the peaceful transition of power? Some of the Dem senators voted for many of Trumps catastrophic picks. In a time where the White House is flooding the zone (as Steve Bannon put it some time ago), Shumer is giving speeches on the senate floor, that no one is listening to and Dem leadership is scheduling emergency meetings for after the reason for the meeting goes into effect. Finally AOC shows some kind of leadership and calls upon all of you to mobilize and resist fascism and you react with “it’s a stalling tactic”? Please realize that you want the same thing. But if you want a mass movement, you will need to be organized on a smaller scale first or else it will fizzle out quickly.


  • I had similar experiences when trying to play Blu Ray Discs recently and wanting DTS or Dolby Digital 5.1 sound. The software for playing DVDs/BDs does not work with modern systems and Win10 and anything working for a modern systems lacks the proper licenses for the audio and just converts everything down to stereo. So my sound system sat there waiting for correctly encoded data streams getting bored. Back when I was in my teens, the sound card came with everything you needed for surround sound and the DVD/BD drive came with everything you needed for quality video. Resorted to digital non-physical media.


  • I’m not surprised the EFAS got approved. It is a complex topic where you would need to read almost the whole KVG to truly understand what’s going on and the messaging of the opponents was sub-optimal to put it mildly.

    The opposing opinion in the official booklet, at least for the German version, was incomprehensible and without concrete links to the substance of the issue or their claims. E.g. HOW are the insurers getting more power? What will they be able to do, that they can’t already? What are the absolute numbers, that show that premiums will rise, when the official report mentions sinking costs? Why will the quality of care deteriorate? They mention privatization, but don’t tell you what would facilitate that…

    The Pro side mainly stressed the positive of correcting the disincentives towards cheaper ambulatory treatments through changing to the uniform financing formula, which in and of itself and without further context is a valid and good point. Both substantively and politically.

    And my biggest problem lies with the official ‘examining review’ from the Federal Chancellery. I know it is normal to try and project what the changes in law could affect in reality. Imho they did it in a biased way. Why am I saying that? Because every argument and scenario they brought up was positive and basically the pro-opinion reads like a summary of the official review. Also: When making simplifications from the actual legal text, they used a more positive description (E.g. “coordination” vs. “restriction” talking about the states limiting offered services). There aren’t many absolute numbers to understand just how much money will shift between insurers, states and patients and what that would mean. In such a situation it is even more incumbent on the opponents to make the downsides clear and fill those gaps.


  • To add to that:

    We have a militia system, which on first glance is a good thing. But then you realize that a plurality of parliamentarians are lawyers, business-people, advisors and other higher economic class individuals. Too many of them are on boards of directors or other high management positions in corporations. Compared to other western countries, it is more mixed, but clear conflicts of interests are present and it is still skewed towards the economic elite. The reasons for this are many, but among others voters getting such individuals in high positions can be paired with people in lower economic classes having less opportunities or motivation to run for office. Which is why local organizing is of utmost importance. You can see the effect in parliaments on a local level: They far more closely represent the population than on a state or federal level. Then there’s party politics, but that’ll get too long, soooo: Next point:

    The media landscape: Your point about a billionaire having great impact on the electoral landscape extends to the media. You can count the owners of the local papers on one hand. Said billionaire owns some of them as well as an own TV channel if you can call it that. And there’s a general animosity towards the SRG SSR with political and legislative attacks to weaken it.


  • The interesting thing is that they are only one in a long line of businesses/industries openly admitting to employing undocumented immigrants, i.e. illegal hiring practices. It is clear, why these businesses are doing this: They can pay less (and the on-cost) and if at any point there is a dispute, they can threaten with the authorities, even if it is illegal in places to do so. If we can believe the numbers, they make up more than 4% of the workforce. Something that has been so seldomly prosecuted, it has become so prevalent, that they’re talking about it in the open.


  • You seem absolutely sure that this will materialize and that its implication means that you have no scope of action. Again, with enough institutionalists in important positions, even if he tries, it would be difficult for him to actually get rid of federal, let alone local and state elections. What is much more likely is that he will make it easier to skew or how he might call it “rig” elections. You know, like voter suppression and gerrymandering on steroids. So what I’ve written still holds: On a local and state level (or even federal level), pressure your elected officials and organize around the protection of voting rights. Be an active part of the legislative process. Democracy isn’t making a cross every four years. And she’s calling on all of us.

    Sidenote: For everything that man says, you can find a clip of him saying the absolute opposite. So watch what he and his lackeys do, not what he says.



  • The OP did a quality reply already where he cites the article you’ve linked to debunk your own claims. But you could also have done with reading the OP’s article until the second paragraph.

    The draft resolution was aimed at calling for an “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire” in Gaza and the release of all hostages held by Palestinian groups in the enclave.

    At this point unquestionably spouting the official lies of the U.S. or Israeli governments is spouting genocidal propaganda and can only be seen as either hopelessly ignorant or bad faith.