BodyBySisyphus [he/him]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: November 17th, 2021

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  • Beyond the effect of natural endowments and the “hidden” labor that goes into marketing, first mover advantage probably plays a role here, too. If you’re on the platform earlier, you have less competition and more time to amass followers, and having followers probably makes it easier to amass more followers, from things like word-of-mouth advertising, being promoted or ranked highly on whatever the platform uses to determine visibility. There’s probably also some time decay in profitability; users might get bored of one model and migrate to others, so the person who’s at the top might not be there permanently and you’d have to look at lifetime earnings rather than earnings in a given month to decompose labor and non-labor contributors to income.





  • The thing about the scheming viziers is that I don’t think any of them are capable of ruling. The whole thing seems to be held together by Trump’s - for lack of a better term - charisma, and even Elon Musk, who seems to be somehow managing the same trick at Tesla, can’t match it. And, given the way that Trump changes his mind so often, if anyone with an actual agenda wants to fully implement it, they’ll have to get him out of the way, but then they won’t be able to fill the vacuum.


  • I’m less and less convinced there is one. Sure, there was one. There were actually many! Libertarian think tanks have been brainstorming ways to cut the federal government down to the military for decades, the theocrats have been working on their Dominion theory, the war hawks have been planning their wars against Iran and China, but the people calling the shots have no idea what they’re doing. They’re just acting out the most dumbed-down versions of those factions’ propaganda because that’s where their comprehension meets its limits. The entire edifice is becoming increasingly unmoored from reality and they’re all busy acting out their fever dreams in real life. It’s pure nihilism; destroy for destruction’s sake. And it’ll continue until it hits a resource constraint; until there’s a crisis because the ports are empty or the market finally crashes because the smart money’s done ripping the copper out of the walls and needs foreign safe havens to escape to, or someone’s itchy trigger finger starts a conflict that the country cannot win, and that’s when gravity’ll kick back in and everyone will feel the empty air beneath their feet and the scrambling will start.










  • So stocks and bonds are supposed to move inversely to one another because bonds are viewed as a “safe haven” when stocks are dropping. Theoretically the cash that’s being taken out of the market now should be parked in bonds to earn interest while people wait for the market to recover. Demand for bonds causes the interest rate to drop. Instead, it’s going up, implying that people are simultaneously selling stocks and bonds, which is viewed as a bad sign for the United States; it’s getting interpreted as a loss in confidence in US financial system. There are, however, several wrinkles.

    1. A bunch of hedge funds had to liquidate their bonds to cover unexpected losses in stocks.
    2. Inflation is still higher than what the Fed wants it to be and is probably going to rise as a result of tariffs. The bond interest rate has to cover inflation, otherwise no one would bother buying them.
    3. The much-watched treasuries auctions earlier this month had robust demand and plenty of foreign buyers, suggesting that other governments and foreign investors are still confident parking their money with the treasury

    If the rate continues to go up even as the stock market continues to drop, it will eventually become a problem. But, for now, it’s just something to keep an eye on. It is bad news for Trump because he’s been trying to get the Fed to lower interest rates so we can go back to the wild days of free money that caused the post-COVID bull market, but the people who (seem to) understand the financial system don’t appear to be surprised this is what’s going on. Trump’s current situation is like Wile E. Coyote running of a cliff. For reasons that appear to apply to Trump and no one else, he’s been able to defy gravity and keep running in empty air, but it appears he’s on the verge of looking down and seeing that there’s nothing under him. Who knows, though, nothing seems to go according to expectation these days.