I predict that Latin America will be the last place in America’s imperium to fall; even once they’ve been forced out of Asia and Africa and maybe even Europe by the 2050s and 60s, they’ll be sailing their gunboats around the coast of Peru and Brazil and taking potshots to try and keep them in line.

That being said, resistance will arise as a result of ongoing events regardless of whether the current selection of leaders or politicians is up to it; that’s just how, like, history works, materially. I think it’s easy to look at the history of Latin America and go “wow, this fucking sucks, it’s just hundreds of years of organisations and parties and countries being overthrown and leaders being assassinated,” and while that’s certainly not a bad way of looking at it (and emphasizes America’s destructive tendencies), it’s interesting that those organisations and parties and countries and leaders keep arising at all. Compare that to Europe, which has been in a state of subservience since more-or-less the end of WW2. The US only need to occasionally shoot a leader’s plane down or blow up a pipeline to keep everybody there aligned with Atlanticism; they don’t have to invade Spain every couple decades or outright overthrow the government of Germany every time they elect a communist leader, because they’re all nice and docile in Europe and don’t generally even want to enact anti-American policies.

It’s why a mass deportation policy isn’t just horrifically racist and destructive to millions of people, but actively counterproductive to US profitability. it’s why I assume that at some point somebody will step in and say to Trump “we, uh, can’t actually deport all these people, because we need them to slave away for extremely low wages or many businesses will outright collapse.” like, it takes a genocidal white supremacist to lock tens of millions of minorities into systems of exploitation for the purpose of making profit for white people in the wealthy parts of the imperial core; it takes a true idiot to then get rid of all those minorities slaving away for you for mere populist reasons (and then wonder why basic products now cost more money).

although I also assumed that Trump wouldn’t actually try and do the tariffs because of how idiotic that is for US imperial strategy and yet here we are

The ceasefire in Gaza is a pretty meaningful part of ending the Gaza genocide. Well, I agree with the critique that the word “ending” it is too strong (it was intended as a somewhat humorous overexaggeration but it was 100% my fault for writing it as it clearly did not land) as the genocide against Palestine has been an ongoing process for like a century, but it would be dishonest to say that getting Israel to withdraw troops and stop bombing civilians and allow aid in without destroying it, etc, isn’t a very meaningful act. In talking about genocide, I was referring to the post-Oct7 events. I gave my take in the previous megathread post body:

The recovery for Gaza will take, at a minimum, decades; it could indeed never fully recovery to even how it was before, considering it is not in Israel’s interests to see their concentration camps recover. But Hamas has proven to be steadfast and the tunnel network has proven its resilience, despite facing some of the most powerful conventional bombing in history. This shows that Palestine’s liberation is a when, not an if; and hopefully a much sooner “when” than expected before October 7th.

Ok, like realistically, is manufacturing really ever gonna come back to America?

If America, within the next 50 years, is capable of producing even 25% of the microchips that Taiwan produces (and entirely inside America, no “let’s do the easy part here and the hard part somewhere else”), I will post an image of my dick and balls on Hexbear (or whatever we’re using by then). I am being 100% serious.

“Actually, those Hamas fighters are holograms, we soundly defeated them 14 months ago.”

It was not a “bunch of missiles”; Hezbollah has over a hundred thousand of them. And not Hamas’ fertilizer rockets, actual entire-houses-collapse explosives. Hezbollah hitting an electrical substation near the West Bank was the threat of how “a bunch of missiles would destroy the state of Israel”; with electricity off, waterports hit by barrages, airports only occasionally functioning, and water desalination disabled, Israel’s population would be reduced - either via emigration or starvation - quite quickly, and life would become difficult to impossible. The economy would certainly be in total collapse. Populations without electricity in a desert-like environment are quite vulnerable, especially ones that are used to high levels of technology (which is why Lebanon is more durable in the face of bombing raids) and frequently ignore indigenous advice that has kept those environments livable for millennia.

Destruction of the entity was never even close to being a possibility, to think otherwise is to engage in utopianism.

This is untrue; Hezbollah alone still has the capability to end Israel’s ability to function as a state, let alone Iran. Israel could, at any point in the last year, had a few thousand missiles fired at them every day for a couple months; orders of magnitude beyond their ability to intercept. Their decision (particularly Hezbollah’s) not to escalate to that level will be discussed here and elsewhere for years to come, and we’ll likely get dripfed information on that over time.

It obviously wasn’t cowardice - you don’t join or become part of Hezbollah’s higher-ups by being a coward - and Hezbollah had increasingly less to lose as Lebanon was increasingly bombed, so I’m curious to know the reasons why. Perhaps Hezbollah’s leadership was told that escalation to this level would have resulted in all of Lebanon and Gaza being nuked, with millions of deaths resulting. Perhaps it had something to do with Iran, or Assad.

If the government can’t even bring itself to devote resources to protect and repair its wealthiest cities and major cultural export centers then the internal rot really is getting bad

I think they’ll likely cave under the pressure from various affected elites but even having to have that conversation and do those bribes is concerning. All these politicians should be obedient pets, they should be rubberstamping everything these Hollywood guys want without question

might be difficult due to how remote it is and how Russia is right there but I suppose it’s not impossible that they’d try. it’s why the safest way to ensure transportation links stay intact is overground rail mass transit across eurasia, hence BRI, though the US is also making that as challenging as possible by disrupting everything from Bangladesh to Georgia

Folks, it’s the best trade deal that anybody has ever seen! We traded California for an area over twice as big! The Northwest Territories are so big, it’s unbelievable, people keep telling me how big it is and I have to keep saying “I know, I know, no need to thank me!” Alaska now has a friend close to it. All we need is to trade Yukon for Oregon and we’ll be all set! Bye bye, Newsom!

Next thread here.

I doubt Trump reaching power will make a significant difference, the US and China are inextricably locked in conflict regardless of what the people at the top of each party think about it. The US simply cannot tolerate a world power that is competitive with their (decreasingly) monopoly position, and that lack of toleration will force China to oppose them to fulfill the survival instinct of their own businesses.

It’s been the path of interimperial/anti-imperial conflict for the last 300-odd years. Capitalism vs socialism has rather little to do with it, in the same way that the Cold War wasn’t communism vs capitalism, it was imperialism vs anti-imperialism (and anti-imperialism largely won, but was then defeated by neo-imperialist strategies). Most of Europe was ruled by the same family of inbred monarchs with relatively similar economies (albeit with stronger and weaker powers, especially pre-WW1) and despite their generally similar capitalist economies, conflict over resource and colony control still prompted them to, twice, start apocalyptically destructive wars. China and the US are in a comparable situation, with even greater ideological differences.

“A war between South Korea and North Korea begins” was a real almost

Hey everybody interested in the aforementioned Imperialism Reading Club, with some feedback, I think we’ll start off with the foundation of Lenin’s Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism. It’s not a terribly long book, so it’s a soft start for those who aren’t really sure if they have the energy to commit to a big text right off the bat.

I was thinking two chapters per week to start off. That averages out to something like 20-30 pages per week, which should be achievable even for quite busy people, and we’d be done by mid-February. If you think that’s too slow and would prefer to go faster, then let me know - I’m unsure how many of you are already involved in reading so I don’t want this to be overloading. After Imperialism, I think we’ll move on to Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson, with the benefit of adjustments to the pace and structure of reading as we learn lessons as we move through Imperialism.

To give everybody time to get their hands on a copy, digital or physical, we’ll be starting next week. If you already have it, then feel free to read the introductions and prefaces and whatever for whichever copy you have.

As I previously said, I will take notes on each chapter and post them here, so that even if you don’t or can’t read along with us, you can still benefit from getting the basic idea and key arguments made.

Next thread here.

Geopolitical Economy Hour: Did Israel and the US win in Syria?

An interesting discussion by Mohammad Marandi and Radhika Desai which, via a sober analysis, seeks to dispel a lot of the triumphalism from those on the pro-genocide side, and bitter resignation from those on the left. I shall summarize the video below:

• First, we start from a quote from Responsible Statecraft which more-or-less concludes that Israel is (at least at the current moment) triumphant in the Middle East. A key part of their assessment is that the Shia movement has been crippled, which is the first sign that things are amiss in their conclusion (much of the Resistance is Sunni). What else is wrong?
• Marandi remarks that the events in Syria are a tactical victory for the US, Israel, and Erdogan (not Turkiye as a whole), but this victory is unstable and likely to disintegrate over time, for the following reasons.
• The question for the US is: should they stay or go? If they go, this presents issues for maintaining this instability for Israel’s benefit. If they stay, this presents an issue for Jolani, because the US’s purpose inside Syria is explicitly to weaken it (they are stealing Syria’s oil to ensure that pro-Resistance forces have less resources to work with).
• The question for Erdogan is: can he continue to exert leverage over Jolani now that he has performed a successful uprising and has western diplomats knocking on his door?
• The question for Jolani is: how much humiliation can he - and Syria - take from Israel stealing their territory and bombing their weapons stockpiles? This will naturally cause resistance to once again rise up against HTS and Jolani. Additionally, Syria still has plenty of groups that are internally vying for power and has plenty of economic problems that cannot be fixed quickly. In fact, there could be a new civil war between the different factions inside Syria and even between groups in HTS. This is on top of the returning refugee groups from Turkiye.

• The key mistake for Israel is the delegitimization of their new pet regime in Syria. What Netanyahu should have done instead is not undermine Jolani and held off on the annexations, and instead done all they could to stabilize and strengthen them (like with Jordan and Egypt). This is on top of the obvious problems for the IDF trying to occupy territory with an increasingly dysfunctional and degraded army after their continued defeats against Hezbollah and Hamas.
• Iran and Russia did the right thing in a bad situation by pulling out without further commitment of resources, as Assad or his generals seemed unwilling to fight for themselves to maintain control of their section of the country. It would be too much to say that this was part of Iran’s grand plan or anything like that, but by not holding desperately onto Assad and instead deciding to let them go once, say, Aleppo or Homs had fallen, Iran has avoided falling into an unnecessary trap.

• The timing of dangerous gambles/events in Ukraine and the Middle East do appear to be a ploy by the Biden administration to create fait accomplis for Trump’s administration; either to ensure they keep the project going, or at least to complicate and delay an eventual resolution on the side of Russia and the Resistance.
• Iran is a stronger country than 8 years ago in terms of foreign relations with non-Western countries, and will be harder to isolate than before. Western sanctions will still present many difficulties, but not as existential as before (so long as China and Russia are in their court).
• Iran is also a stronger country militarily than 8 years ago, and will set the world on fire if Trump (or, indeed, Biden, with a couple weeks to go) tries anything too stupid. It will be too dangerous for the US and especially Israel to start a war against Iran, and Iran’s position as the “hub” and suppliers of weapons and expertise means that the Resistance will continue to function relatively well (and has not been “defeated” or anything like that).

absolutely disgusting and perplexing tidings from the local innkeeper, whom hath received word from the yearly merchant caravan that Genghis Khan, that devil of the far east, doth hath in his possession a keffiyeh, a Quran, Mein Kampf, and the instructions (ripped straight from an almanac of latest alchemical discoveries) on bomb construction

China donates 70 tons of equipment to Cuba to restore its electric system

The People’s Republic of China has donated almost 70 tons of power generator parts and accessories to Cuba, aiming to contribute to the recovery of the Caribbean island’s electricity system.

The materials arrived in the country on Sunday (29) and were received by China’s ambassador to Cuba, Hua Xin, and Cuba’s deputy ministers of Foreign Trade and Investment, Déborah Rivas, and Energy and Mining, Tatiana Amarán.

According to Ambassador Xin, the shipment is part of China’s second assistance package in 2024 to help restore Cuba’s electricity generation capacity to around 400 megawatts (MW). As part of an “emergency project list,” the donations were included to provide Cuba with effective and rapid aid according to what the Chinese government calls “convenience for the most urgent.”

…

The donations come as the Caribbean country is facing a serious energy crisis that has worsened in recent months. This year, Cuba has suffered three total blackouts in the national electricity system, leaving the country completely in the dark. Currently, power cuts are becoming more and more constant, affecting over 40% of the population daily. The situation has seriously damaged economic activity and the population’s quality of life.

Even with this and the photovoltaic donations, it feels like China is very squeamish about helping Cuba that much. Quite disappointing. Perhaps as the US keeps driving forward on sanctions on China, they’ll increasingly not care about potential consequences, but until then, Cuba suffers.

On top of this:

F-35 maker’s stock downgraded after alleged China’s 6th-gen fighter debut: US media

Stock of US arms firm Lockheed Martin, maker of the fifth-generation fighter jet F-35, was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $523, down from $611. An analyst at the bank named “China’s combat aircraft modernization efforts” as a reason behind the decision, after videos emerged online suspected of showing alleged China’s six-generation fighter jet.

Deutsche Bank says its lost conviction in its original upgrade thesis from July, and struggles to find new reasons to remain constructive on the shares, US news outlet Business Insider reported on Thursday.

“We’re downgrading Lockheed to Hold [from Buy] as we feel our prior thesis struggles to hold water and we have increased concern on the long-term support for F-35 in the face of China’s combat aircraft modernization efforts,” US news outlet Barron’s quoted Deutsch Bank analyst Scott Deuschle as saying.

Deuschle said he sees “the reveal of further advancements in combat aircraft capabilities by China as potentially undermining long-term [Department of Defense] demand for the F-35 aircraft.”

Pridnestrovie has been paralyzed by Ukraine.

The cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers.

The mainly Russian-speaking territory of about 450,000 people, which split from Moldova in the 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed, has suffered a painful and immediate hit from Wednesday’s cut-off of Russian gas supplies to central and eastern Europe via Ukraine.

Transnistria has for several years paid nothing for supplies from Russian gas giant Gazprom under a tacit understanding with Moscow. Russia however counts the cost of the supplies as foreign debt for Moldova.

“All industrial enterprises are idle, with the exception of those engaged in food production - that is, directly ensuring food security for Transnistria,” Sergei Obolonik, first deputy prime minister of the region, told a local news channel.

…

Ukraine had allowed Russia to keep pumping gas across its territory despite nearly three years of war, and was earning up to $1 billion a year in transit fees. But Kyiv refused to renew a five-year deal that expired on 1 January.