Alright, changing my “taller than the average man in Napoleonic times” talking point to this one which seems way more relevant

This is pure speculation but I’m 90% sure that the NVidia drop had nothing to do with Deepseek R1 and was actually insider trading on the “news” that Trump was considering a tariff on Taiwanese chips.

First, R1 was released on the 20th, 5 days before the stock dropped. It wasn’t at all a secret, basically it was the talk of the town that whole week and their capabilities claims were shown to be solid very early on by many many people running independent benchmarks. But the market didn’t react.

Second, the big AI companies want all the compute they can get, they aren’t satisfied with training 10 or 100 or 1000 times more quickly, this is why they’re talking about trillion dollar data centers with nuclear reactors. Also of note, R1 was trained on Nvidia TPUs with the same amount of vram as the H100s. You couldn’t cheaply train such a model on any other brand of hardware, demand for Nvidia products isn’t going anywhere.

Third, if anything it’s the AI software companies that would take a big drop, they’re the ones who are supposedly spooked and scrambling to replicate R1 internally. The major software only players took only a small hit but recovered quickly, that would be Microsoft and Meta. Google is also a hardware company, they’re trying to move some of their chip fabs to TMSC but their TPUs are made by Samsung. They took a small hit and have not yet recovered. AMD is a hardware company, they have fabs all over including sourcing from TMSC, same story. Intel, a similar company, no change whatsoever, they don’t use TMSC at all. Nvidia took the big one, and they get ALL of their chips from… TMSC. All the action happened about simultaneously in after hours weekend trading.

Fourth, when the tariff news dropped the market seemed to be unaffected almost as if it had already been priced in over weekend trading.

That reminds me, remember Sarah Silverman’s Oscar worthy performance when they go back to the future past? She acts almost entirely with her lower lip, presumably as some kind of flex

Yes I do it currently, it’s one of the only things that’s helped my depression even a little. Unfortunately for me the effect is modest and only lasts a few days, but it’s better than nothing. I don’t terribly love the effects despite liking most other drugs, so chance of addiction for me is about 0.

I agree with other posters that 200+ mg every three days is excessive for most people, but I don’t think it’s dangerous. Dissociative addiction will mess you up though, it’s just that you’d be doing far more than that as an addict.

I don’t know anything about your alluded to substance use issues, it probably depends on your DOC whether I’d recommend risking it.

Interesting read! So they have never significantly tapped into your chemistry or science knowledge? I have a college kid who doesn’t love taking money from me and randomly lost a bunch of financial aid this year. Thinking of forwarding this info to them but I’m a little worried it would be demoralizing as a first non-work-study job…

Like, if you didn’t like reservoir dogs even a little I guess just quit. Otherwise, just don’t watch once upon a time in Hollywood and you’ll be pleasantly surprised at the rest.

“Let us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant brilliant billion of stars.” -Kamala Sagan

“considering the more left wing politicians never seem to win the primaries”

I got the result I was brave enough to say I wanted yay

He thought he was the left foot of God, perhaps he needed to be knocked down a peg.

https://youtu.be/zOauN49Ljuc

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Very well, I’ll take that as a sort of compliment lol.

So I guess I start where I always do, do you think a machine, in principal, has the capability to be intelligent and/or creative? If not, I really don’t have any counter, I suppose I’d be curious as to why though. Like I admit it’s possible there’s something non-physical or non-mechanistic driving our bodies that’s unknown to science. I find that very few hold this hard line opinion though, assuming you are also in that category…

So if that’s correct, what is it about the current paradigm of machine learning that you think is missing? Is it embodiment, is it the simplicity of artificial neurons compared to biological ones, something specific about the transformer architecture, a combination of these, or something else I haven’t thought of?

And hopefully it goes without saying, I don’t think o1-preview is a human level AGI, I merely believe that we’re getting there quite soon and without too many new architectural innovations, possibly just one or two, and none of them will be particularly groundbreaking, it’s fairly obvious what the next couple of steps will be as it was that MCTS + LLM was the next step 3 years ago.

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You’re describing like 95% of the entire USA though, and 80% of the entire world. I am also prone to judging humanity as not so great, but we literally need them for the revolution. Well maybe not the initial part, but we’ll need most of them to get with the program in short order.

it constructs a concept in a more abstract way then progressively finds a way to put it into words; I know that arguably that’s what it’s doing currently,

Correct!

but the fact that it does it separately for each token means it’s not constructing any kind of abstraction

No!!! You simply cannot make judgements like this based on vague ideas like “autocomplete on steroids” or “stochastic parrot”, these were good for conceptualizing GPT-2, maybe. It’s actually very inefficient, but, by re-reading what it has previously written (plus one token) it’s actually acting sort of like an RNN. In fact we know theoretically that with simlified attention models the two architectures are mathematically equivalent.

Let me put it like this. Suppose you had the ability to summon a great novelist as they were at some particular point in their life, pull them from one exact moment in the past, and to do this as many times as you liked. You put a gun to their head, or perhaps offer them alcohol and cocaine, to start writing a novel. The moment they finish the first word, you shoot them in the head and summon the same version again. “Look I’ve got a great first word for a novel, and if you can turn it into a good paragraph I’ll give you this bottle of gin and a gram of cocaine!”. They think for a moment and begin to put down more words, but again you shoot them after word two. Rinse/repeat until a novel is formed. It takes a good while but eventually you’ve got yourself a first draft. You may also have them refine the novel using the same technique, also you may want to give them some of the drugs and alcohol before hand to improve their writing and allow them to put aside the fact that they’ve been summoned to the future by a sorcerer. Now I ask you, is there any theoretical reason why this novel wouldn’t be any good? Is the essence of it somehow different than any other novel, can we judge it as not being real art or creativity?

The model was trained on self-play, it’s unclear exactly how, whether via regular chain-of-thought reasoning or some kind of MCTS scheme. It no longer relies only on ideas from internet data, that’s where it started from. It can learn from mistakes it made during training, from making lucky guesses, etc. Now it’s way better as solving math problems, programming, and writing comedy. At what point do we call what it’s doing reasoning? Just like, never, because it’s a computer? Or you object to the transformer architecture specifically, what?

Look I just don’t think that’s a helpful mindset, there are still good people who don’t understand and or don’t agree. They probably treat these videos and news as misinformation or just tell themselves it’s a necessary evil in a fight against an even greater evil, remember they think that gazans are mostly united in their hatred against Jews and would like to see them eliminated woldwide, not that this ought to make much of a difference in the calulation of whether or not to kill an entire culture with no power to fight back… but I have to admit that if I believed this to be true I would be less invested emotionally. Or they just haven’t seen the information at all, that’s probably the bulk of it actually.

It’s incredibly hard to let go of an ideology, and liberalism and to a lesser extent democratism are quite powerful and seductive from the standpoint of someone embedded in American society who hasn’t seen the light when it comes to the whole America being evil thing. As emaciated and I’ll defined as our culture it, it is still a culture nonetheless, or it appears to be at least, it’s something many people cherish and will want to protect, and when an inclination is so deeply ingrained it creates enormous potential for self deception and willful ignorance.

So do I have trouble not hating them, yes, but on the other hand I also see where they’re coming from, their experiences have likely been quite different from my own, and that means there may be potential for conversion via the inception of new experience You have to admit it’s already happening to an extent, there are a lot of libs out there who have been partially black pilled by this whole genocide thing, which they still see as merely another war, albeit a particularly gruesome one. They’re on the right path. Are they moving too slowly, more disinterested in completing the journey of enlightenment than they need to be, perhaps not even aware they haven’t reached the end? Yes. Will most of them never make it? Probably. But some will and I happen to believe that if you are potentially a future ally you should not be treated as an enemy, at least in the absence of other mitigating circumstances.

What lies between us and the truth of this situation is a window crystal clear to you, to me, to some still in the “progressive” category who keeps themselves well informed. What we sometimes forget is that it is our ideology and education and personal inclinations give us X-ray vision, we see certainly things with such clarity that we forget the window is there at all, and that it is opaque to certain frequencies of light. But that type of vision is not yet available to all, some may have ways of devoping it to various extents, but they all will involve some level of pain, guilt, loss, grief, and sheer effort.

The effort, we’re all quite tired, we need our sleepy time, and yet some person, who my friends tell me I should hate or ignore, is telling me to get out of bed and embark on some spirit quest which, if my friends knew I had gone along, could jeopardize our relationships? Oh and this person btw appears to be even more tired and quite miserable compared to me, and filled with anger? No thanks, I’ll just get a good night’s sleep instead. After all I have work in the morning.

We have the majority very roughly on our side, but we need even more and we need to smooth out that roughness, that is part of our job right now. We need to recognize when this is and isn’t feasible and accept that polishing a surface is sometimes a many step process, especially if that surface is particularly hard or too brittle, but if we are too picky about the tools we are willing to apply, the raw materials we’re willing to work with, we are using our labor inefficiently and we end up with fewer and lower quality products which might otherwise have been unique items of great use in enacting our plans.

Eh, but this sort of thing is an actual practical use case of crypto, the problem as you pointed out is off ramping to a fiat currency, this is actually a sovable problem, you can wash your crypto funds, there are methods for literally perfect money laundering if you know what you’re doing, and as long as you know someone who can cash them out and get the money to you you’re good to go. Unfortunately it’s annoying AF, I’m sure Hamas and whatnot are doing something like this but not your average Palestinian.

I have kids so yes, I must in a sense hope in order to maintain the tiny bit of sanity that holds my life together

And to be clear I don’t expect reform from within to save the country, but perhaps it may buy the world enough time for revolution