canada as a state and voting left, all else the same wrt u.s. presidential election process…
canada would have two senators, increasing the senate to 102 members. and in a reapportioned house, receive 44 seats, ‘taking’ 5 from california; 4 from tx; 3 from fl; 2 ea from il, ny, nc, pa; 1 ea from al, az, co, ct, ga, in, ks, ky, md, ma, mi, mn, mo, mt, ne, nj, oh, or, ri, sc, tn, va, wa, wi.
using 2024 state results (note: figuring ne and me would basically cancel each other out anyway and to keep my 2-minute spreadsheet simple, i just left those two states all-or-nothing), and assuming the great commonwealth of canada, now a u.s. state, would vote left…
looks like it woulda been 287 for r, 253 for d; with 271 needed to win.
just adding a state doesn’t change how electoral college votes are distributed, it’s still heavily skewed in favor of low-pop states because states get equal representation in the senate regardless of population. remember each member of congress… that’s house + senate… gives their state one ec vote. that’s why the hypothetical here doesn’t change the overall outcome.
if each province became a state instead… things might get ‘interesting’, then.
the territories are so small a population, taking them out (to be ‘left out’ like dc or puerto rico, or other u.s. territory–any of which is larger than any canadian territory by population) wouldn’t have changed anything.
but as states, they’d be, by far, the ‘best represented’ populations in congress and the electoral college. even nl and pei would be ‘over represented’ compared to wyoming (the lowest-pop state).
canada as a state and voting left, all else the same wrt u.s. presidential election process…
canada would have two senators, increasing the senate to 102 members. and in a reapportioned house, receive 44 seats, ‘taking’ 5 from california; 4 from tx; 3 from fl; 2 ea from il, ny, nc, pa; 1 ea from al, az, co, ct, ga, in, ks, ky, md, ma, mi, mn, mo, mt, ne, nj, oh, or, ri, sc, tn, va, wa, wi.
using 2024 state results (note: figuring ne and me would basically cancel each other out anyway and to keep my 2-minute spreadsheet simple, i just left those two states all-or-nothing), and assuming the great commonwealth of canada, now a u.s. state, would vote left…
looks like it woulda been 287 for r, 253 for d; with 271 needed to win.
just adding a state doesn’t change how electoral college votes are distributed, it’s still heavily skewed in favor of low-pop states because states get equal representation in the senate regardless of population. remember each member of congress… that’s house + senate… gives their state one ec vote. that’s why the hypothetical here doesn’t change the overall outcome.
if each province became a state instead… things might get ‘interesting’, then.
Don’t forget the territories
oh, i didn’t…
the territories are so small a population, taking them out (to be ‘left out’ like dc or puerto rico, or other u.s. territory–any of which is larger than any canadian territory by population) wouldn’t have changed anything.
but as states, they’d be, by far, the ‘best represented’ populations in congress and the electoral college. even nl and pei would be ‘over represented’ compared to wyoming (the lowest-pop state).