This idea that most of the guys betting on sports every weekend are “pretty much breaking even” is wrong. Anyone can get lucky on a long shot, but as soon as you demonstrate the ability to get the real edge – the one that understands that odds pricing is the only thing that matters, you are kicked out for life.
I’m surprised that the narrative is apparently that people are breaking even. Everyone I know views, say, casinos as 100% rigged, and the expectation is that the typical person loses consistently. Considering the business model this should be obvious?
I think the barrage of ads and the promise of “free money” lures people into thinking they don’t have much risk
“The house always wins,” is a well-known phrase for a reason. Mathematically, games in casinos are rigged in their favor. Games that are more favored towards the player have lower payouts. Blackjack, for example, is a solved game and therefore doesn’t pay out as much as poker, which has no limits and the house takes a cut of the pool one way or another. Slots are another good example of a rigged game. The odds of a jackpot are so horrendously low, casinos can afford to give players free drinks and rooms for playing penny slots.