One of Erdoğan’s greatest talents was his electoral success. Between his tight grip on the media (literal oligarchic control btw) and extraordinary ability to appeal to parts of the electorate, he hasn’t lost the government since his party first won in 2002. This isn’t really surprising in retrospect, his party is the only one that’s actually organised. Until 2018 there was negligible organisation to campaign or maintain election security, and as of 2023, on a national level, it’s still quite abysmal. Basically, he’s been successful in part because his party has been doing that very same thing Communists have been telling each other to do, and his opposition failed to. I lack brevity as is, so I’m not getting into the roots of AKP or the events of 2015.

It looks like İmamoğlu is the only one who has beaten Erdoğan at any level and is believed to be the only man who can best him in a general election. He’s got a charisma that’s eerily reminiscent of Erdoğan himself, he’s shown himself to be quite the builder of coalitions and it was his organising work that won him İstanbul in 2019 and won the party many other provinces in 2024 local elections. I’m harping on the organising issue in part because it’s that important (as is obvious to ask comrades here) but also because the CHP’s attempts in 2023 to fight AKP organising was to claim it had collapsed, which was revealed the day after the election to be entirely devoid of truth. Also worth mentioning is Yavaş, mayor of Ankara, similarly believed to be a rival to Erdoğan. He’s not. He can’t stop the anti-Kurdish rhetoric to save his life, meaning there’s no chance he can get majority support of the Kurdish people and would lose nationally.

On the 17th, İmamoğlu had his diploma annulled for bs reasons (a university diploma is required to run for the presidency), on the next day he and 100 others were drained, around half were charged and arrested 3 days later, protests began on the day of detaining. They’ve largely been led by CHP, which turned them into electioneering without an upcoming election. The party leader engages in some resistance rhetoric but their main function has been to sheepdog people into not putting the budding revolutionary enthusiasm into anything revolutionary. The protests overall have had a clear Kemalist bent, so nationalist fascists are a-ok but anyone implying Kurdish liberation sympathies is expelled. I know there are some comrades among them closing themselves in Kemalist symbols intentionally, but haven’t seen any socialist symbols by themselves. Youth attempting spontaneous action usually get arrested since they lack organisation, as such don’t know what to do beyond the next 5 minutes or how to act around the pigs.

Internationally, Turkey is just a periphery vassal. After the ottoman empire became a semi-colony and eventually fell, it’s been trying to “reach the level of modern nations.” Plunging oneself intentionally to the horrors of capitalism, without the scientific understanding and approach of Communists, purely on ideological grounds and trying to embed oneself to the imperialists order of things on their terms is a tried and failed strategy. While this is clear in retrospect, I maintain that it was as idiotic in 1929 as it is in 2025. The great depression happened 6 years after Turkey was founded, it’s beyond me why half the founding crew didn’t question they’re Francophile education and liberal tendencies. That being said, Erdoğan has 2 recent victories: the fascists in control of Syria maintain their junior partner or whatever position with Erdoğan and Trump’s in office, with whom Erdoğan has his rapport. He’s also in good standing with Europe and hailed as the defender of a free Ukraine, but I don’t think that’s something he can cash in anyhow. His relationship with Europe has always been one step forward, five steps back after he has some head start when he first came into office as prime minister.

That’s how things have been as I’ve perceived them. I don’t know whether İmamoğlu will be released, whether he will win if he is, whether his candidacy will be upheld by the government that incarcerated him in the first place, but most importantly, I have no idea whether he’ll be better for Turkey or the world. Internally, I would expect that things would go back to parliamentary system, not because İmamoğlu would want to give up power, but rather because I expect the coalition that topples Erdoğan to crumble in turn. I expect the economic conditions to stabilise, between the “sensible” liberal policies and western money. Kurdish liberation won’t be a hair closer. Socialists won’t be more free to operate, such as they are. He’ll be more likely to go along with European schemes in the region, especially anything to support the Zionist entity, but his party is partial to taking random principled stances against western interests every once in a while.