— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 How’s the situation of Iran’s ballistic missile program?

Israel claims it has now destroyed two thirds of Iran’s TEL launchers capable of launching ballistic missiles towards Israel. They say this is the reason Iran has been firing less missiles on a daily basis compared to at the start.

However, in reality this likely isn’t the case. We have actually seen less than 10 TEL launchers visuably confirmed to be destroyed. But then why is Iran seemingly ‘unable’ to launch large misile salvos at once?

Iran has a vast network of underground missile bases spread all throughout the country, with the main ones being located in Western Iran, near Tabriz, Khorammabad, and Kermanshah. These sites are located deep underground, and are practically invulnerable to conventional Israeli strikes.

However, in the opening strike on Friday, Israel managed to target some of these bases and collapse their tunnel entrances. It will take Iran days to remove the rubble and reopen the entrances, and even then, they will be vulnerable to repeated attacks due to Israeli air superiority in the West.

The majority of missiles being launched at Israel currently are originating from Central and Eastern Iran, places like Shiraz, Shahrud, or even Mashhad. This is because Israeli air superiority is much less consolidated in these areas.

However, even with the worst case scenario of only 100-200 TELs left, Iran should be able to carry out a large coordinated missile strike. So why don’t they?

Carrying out a large-scale coordinated missile strike requires planning and staging. In the staging phase, launchers are taken out of their bases and prepared for launch. In areas where Israel has sufficient air superiority, they can quickly detect these launchers and preemptively strike them, potentially risking high losses.

This is why Iran is currently only using 1-2 missile bases at a time. They are carrying out ‘hit-and-run’ tactics: Take out 20-30 launchers, fire, and immediately withdraw back into the tunnels to avoid any losses.

When Iran feels more confident about its ability to launch large and coordinated attacks, they will do so. Because they have not run out of missiles and launchers, and won’t anytime soon. But the situation at Iran’s Western missile bases must first be addressed in order to proceed with this.

Over all, the vast majority of Iran’s missile bases are fully intact, with the notable exception of possibly Tabriz, which we saw footage of large secondary explosions, implying that the underground structure was hit. For most of Iran’s ‘damaged’ missile bases, it’s simply a matter of time — removing the rubble from the entrance tunnels and getting back to work.

When Israel’s defense systems start becoming significantly degraded, which we will likely see in the coming days, Iran will probably launch larger attacks with its less sophisticated missiles with bigger warheads. Using those now would be a waste.

@Middle_East_Spectator