• Hyperrealism@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        10 days ago

        Might sign, think they won’t honour it, but end up procastinating or get distracted, unintentionally honouring for long enough that invading is no longer something they want.

    • Hyperrealism@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      11 days ago

      Putin’s old even for a rich Russian, the economy is in the shitter, oil prices are too low, Russia’s facing a demographic time bomb, Kadyrov’s health has seriously declined in recent days and Chechnya might become unstable again, the guy they helped get in the White House no longer seems to give any fucks or worry about nuclear retaliation, he also recently called Putin a liar, and his new hobby seems to be bombing Russian allies when he’s bored.

      I think we should all take Russian bluster with a pinch of salt. They can keep this going for a few more years, but not much more. If they can get something they can spin as a win, I think they’ll take it. They have plenty of reasons to do so.

      But what do I know, I’m just some cunt on the internet.

  • cyrano@piefed.social
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    10 days ago

    It really isnt beyond the realm of imagination that the US would sign up to this and then:

    - Declare under a false flag that Ukraine had breached terms

    - Russia goes back on the offensive after having had a breather to mobilize more troops and rearm

    - European militaries are committed to Ukraine and stretched thin

    - Trump goes for Greenland

    Its quite stark how close we are to the geography of 1984 and its superstates (spheres of power):