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Joined 5 months ago
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Cake day: March 13th, 2026

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  • JPMC is pretty sure that the US needs a “solution” that “reopens” Hormuz by early June. That cuts both ways, more pressure to find a military solution and greater risk of any miscalculation or failure. The safest play is to keep the blockade on the blockade going and say that Iran is being crippled.

    It looks like there’s very little room for a negotiated solution but a long slow drawdown that ends somewhere both sides can accept without ever declaring an agreement doesn’t seem insane to me. It’s face saving for the US and Iran collecting tolls and controlling Hormuz is pretty good for them.






  • I’d be pretty surprised by that. Soldiers are chatty and have access to some social media. Casualty communications blackouts aren’t perfect and eventually things start to leak, especially once details make it into the family readiness groups back home. Not saying it’s impossible but the odds of something like that working for more than a couple days would be pretty small.

    I’m not an expert but I’m familiar with that particular mechanism.